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It was the severe drought and famine
of 1877 that prompted the government
of India to launch a study about the
behaviors of the subsequent monsoon.
Following this, H.F. Blanford, the
then Indian Meteorological reporter,
noted an inverse relationship between
heavy snow falling over ht
northwestern Himalayas in late May and
the subsequent monsoon rainfall over
India and Burma. In June 1886, the
first of the regular series of
operational forecast was issued,
making India the first country in the
world to issue long range forecast of
weather.
Based on a phenomenon called Southern
Oscillation, a long forecast model
was developed in 1910 by Sir Gilbert
Walker, who headed the Indian
Metrological Services from 1904 to
1921. It was only a decade ago, that
the Indian Meteorological Department
achieved a breakthrough in the filed
by developing the 16 parameter monsoon
model based on 16 parameter monsoon
model based on 16
land-ocean-atmospheric forcing. It is
the sum total of all these 16
parameters that predicts the quantity
of the rainfall that will be obtained
during the June 1 - September 30
period in the whole country. This
model is claimed to have cent per cent
success rating.
Monsoon in
other part of the World
Monsoons associated with other
continental masses of the earth are
not as well pronounced as the Indian
monsoon though seasonal changes in the
direction of the wind are known to
occur over North Australia, Western
and Eastern Africa and Southern USA.
North-west winds that tend to blow
from the Atlantic into Europe during
June and July is sometimes referred to
as European monsoon.
The summer monsoon in Southern China
is known as He Mei-Yu. It occurs from
early June to mid July. Though shorter
in duration that the Indian monsoon,
it causes heavy floods in the Yangtze
river valley. The summer monsoon over
Japan is known as the Baiu.
Monsoon and
Indian Economy
A former Finance Minister of the
government of India is believed to
have said once that his budget was
"largely a gamble on rain".
This comment reflects Indian economys
dependence on the monsoon. No other
natural factor plays such a dominant
role in as many national activities as
the monsoon does. The monsoon provides
life saving water for humanity,
agriculture ands resource
replenishment. Generation of electric
power is heavily dependent on monsoon
rains.
Over 70% of the annual rainfall in
India I recorded during the south west
monsoon (summer monsoon). The
temperamental nature of monsoon often
plays havoc with the Indian economy.
However, with the advent of modern
technology, emphasis is laid on
harnessing the excess of rain, where
it occurs, for irrigation and power
generation. Similarly, in regions
receiving less rain or where the
amount of rainfall is highly variable,
a change in the pattern of crops and
agricultural operations is brought
about.
Rainfall
& Indian Agriculture
Indian agriculture is almost entirely
dependent on rainfall. Rainfall is
seasonal here and therefore the crop
production is extremely sensitive to
monsoon rains. It has been estimated
that our annual requirement of food
grains will be nearly 200 million
tones around 2000 A.D. This , in
effect, means that an annual growth
rate of five per cent is needed in
food production. Information regarding
rainfall, its distribution and its
timeliness is therefore vital to
farmers. Prediction techniques which
are now available are not much helpful
in this regard. Many in the field
point out that setting up of a central
agency to study the dynamics of the
monsoon with the help of other
individual organizations will be a
major step towards understanding the
nature of monsoon.
Crops for
Monsoon
Millets are considered to be most
suited to monsoon rainfall. Paddy
depends on large amounts of rainfall
and is therefore prone to dangers of
water logging and floods. To avoid,
this, the time of snowing is adjusted
to the date of commencement of
rainfall. Farmers who are familiar
with the vagaries of monsoon often
keep a second line of crops ready in
case of early or late occurrence of
rainfall.
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